Howdy ! Im a French investor from Barcelona. I do not work in investment.
I am about 8 years in my investment journey and the outcome so far is positive, despite some mistakes, changes of style, covid and emerging market crises. I am optimistic about emerging markets stock value so I will focus this website on it. But I also have some non emerging markets stocks in my portfolio and stocks that I co own and are not value.
This website aims to be to become a place for my content, and hopefully be a place for collaboration with other minded investors to post under their names.
I have written a 8 years long portfolio journey in a French stock forum, and I am switching future reporting to this avenue, because my style is too Niche for this French audience. Its really a learning record with hits and miss and style searching, but I can in the future share some old notes.
Now for my 2020 year end commentary. Since I already wrote it in French, I just google translated it. After one last update to translate, I will fully write in English. I hope you will enjoy and connect with ideas and thoughts!
| PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC. | Finance | Developped | 8.09% |
| FIRST PACIFIC CO | Holding defe | Emerging | 5.87% |
| PZ CUSSONS | Consumer goo | Emerging | 5.02% |
| COCA-COLA ICECEK AS | Consumer goo | Emerging | 4.66% |
| BANK OF IRELAND GROUP PL | Bank | Developped | 4.41% |
| BOLLORE | Holding defe | Mixed | 4.33% |
| BRITISH AMERICAN TOBAC | Consumer goo | Mixed | 3.97% |
| COCA COLA FEMSA SAB | Consumer goo | Emerging | 3.78% |
| BASTIDE THE COMFORT | Healthcare | Developped | 3.35% |
| ARCELORMITTAL SA | Industry | Developped | 3.20% |
| TIANYUN INTERNATIONAL HO | Consumer goo | Emerging | 2.94% |
| WALT DISNEY COMPANY (T | Holding defe | Developped | 2.81% |
| GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC CO | Healthcare | Mixed | 2.73% |
| ALTRIA GROUP INC. | Consumer goo | Developped | 2.72% |
| ULKER BISKUVI SANAYI AS | Consumer goo | Emerging | 2.46% |
| STARBUCKS CORPORATION | Consumer goo | Developped | 2.40% |
| MTN GROUP LTD. RC-, 000 | Telecom | Emerging | 2.32% |
| CK HUTCHISON HOLDINGS LT | Holding defe | Mixed | 2.30% |
| BP PLC COMMON STOCK | Energy | Mixed | 2.21% |
| MAHINDRA GDR | Holding Cycl | Emerging | 2.20% |
| JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE | Holding Cycl | Emerging | 2.09% |
| COCA-COLA COMPANY (THE | Consumer goo | Emerging | 1.80% |
| IMP.TOBACCO GRP | Consumer goo | Mixed | 1.68% |
| KT CORPORATION COMMON | Telecom | Developped | 1.66% |
| INDOFOOD RP 10 | Consumer goo | Emerging | 1.56% |
| EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA S | Consumer goo | Emerging | 1.55% |
| BEIJING ENTERPRISES WATE | Utiliy | Emerging | 1.51% |
| FRASER AND NEAVE LTD | Consumer goo | Emerging | 1.39% |
| AMBEV SA AMERICAN DE | Consumer goo | Emerging | 1.35% |
| GRUPO BIMBO SAB BY C. | Consumer goo | Mixed | 1.34% |
| CK HUTCHISON HLDGS | Holding defe | Mixed | 1.29% |
| EUROFINS SCIENT. | Healthcare | Developped | 1.25% |
| GAZPROM NEFT ADR5 / RL-001 | Energy | Emerging | 1.22% |
| FRESENIUS SE & CO KGAA | Healthcare | Developped | 1.20% |
| KRI-KRI SA (CR) | Consumer goo | Developped | 1.19% |
| SHANGHAI PHARMACEUTICALS | Healthcare | Emerging | 1.19% |
| LAM SOON HONG KONG | Consumer goo | Emerging | 1.19% |
| COSAN LIMITED CLASS A | Holding defe | Emerging | 1.11% |
| WHOLE EARTH BRANDS INC. | Consumer goo | Developped | 0.89% |
| SHOPRITE HLD LTD RC 1.13 | Consumer goo | Emerging | 0.78% |
| ATLAS MARA | Bank | Emerging | 0.52% |
| TRANSOCEAN LTD | Energy | Mixed | 0.47% |"I am flat in 2020. I am satisfied with it despite the errors:
-error: not to sell Poulaillon when I knew that the covid would arrive, but I was too attached to the value and its already low price. You have to sell something to buy back later.
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-sell a few undervalued companies because I was no longer confident in the management (Softbank) or because I was afraid of losing big gains (Cosan sold in profit but which recovered well afterwards).
- not to think of a reaction to two factors: not anticipating a drop in oil. This mistake will not be a problem in the long term because I think the oil companies will come back up.
Good management:
-Have a little timed the market during its fall with cash and hedged the fall with Gilead. I don't like them though with their shenanigans but I didn't know it at the time.
- To have exited highly valued companies and to have reinforced cyclical ones or perceived as cyclical in the midst of the crisis, which have recovered well since: MTN group, bank of Ireland, Civeo, An inbev.
-A good selection of stocks: Baidu, Eurofins Scientific, Bastide de confort, Tinayun international, etc.
So why am I only flat over the year?
-the big falls of oil and emerging companies were only offset by the rest.
At the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, I did a window dressing to close this crazy year and come out of some bets that were too speculative in relation to my reiterated objective of conservative profile "dividend growth investor / growth at a reasonable price".
-exit Civeo / Baidu. After good increases. I like Baidu but hey it's a bit hot with the USA the Adr, and there are many opportunities.
-exit Boustead Singapore in PV: interesting company but which does not use its cash.
In addition, with my profile, I need a dividend, even very small, or the prospect of a dividend. This allows the bear markets to pass betteer, and my goal is to return to dividend consumption mode soon.
-exit: Philip Morris; not bad but I have overexposure to cigarettes.
-exit: An InBev; our politicians are reconfining everything. I keep Ambev because in Brazil we consume anyway and in Latam we treat without confining too much.
I enter a lot of small lines;
-First I went back to long-term composing machines by small legacy positions that I keep in real buy and hold.
1- Eurofins Scientific has 63 €: this company no longer needs to be presented, it is a very profitable growth machine and is not that expensive. There are few of this type, as they mix organic growth and small acquisitions.
2- Cosan Limited at $ 18 with the euro at $ 1.23: this company is a very profitable growth machine, a management to make Buffett look like Jean Marie Messier, and an exposure to agriculture in Brazil (Trains, sugar cane, natural gas , ethanol, gas stations with stores). As they finally declared a big dividend and will unify the Brazilian listing with the united state, it finally convinces me to come back.
Then new inexpensive small defensive lines.
3- Fresenius Se : healthcare company in Germany, present in dialysis, hospitals, equipment and growing through acquisitions, PE of 11 at the start because the covid delayed operations. The only true aristocratic dividend in Germany. If it upgrades a lot I could sell. again.
4-Fraser and Neave . (Singapore).
A company that sells yogurt in Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia, as well as drinks. A 13-14 pe. But it also sells beer in Burma (new factory) and goes into Indonesia. So there are start-up costs in this PE. There is also a Publishing segment which is in loss with the covid, but which should return to equilibrium soon. Bonus, I believe the company owns Starbucks Thailand but I couldn't confirm if the deal has been completed! To check. In short, a well diversified company in South East Asia. Do you know that Vietnam has two metropolitan areas of 20 million inhabitants? It's crazy.
5-I come back to Grupo Bimbo. The leading sandwich bread company in the world has a p / fcf of 9-10. Knowing that it also has new operations in Asia and Europe and South America that are just starting to reach the scale needed to make money. Impecable track record of this company.
6- Shanghai Pharma . P / e of 7-8 for one of the biggest distributors and importers of medicines in China, big producer of generics, joint ventures with foreign biotech or pharmas, pharmacies and health software too. Holds Cardinal health China for reference. It sounds like the perfect business. Risk of lower prices for certain drugs also in China. I am also interested in its competitor Sinopharm .
8-Whole earth brands (small line).
Spac on natural sugar substitutes, natural sugar, consumer products. Debt at 4.5 / ebitda, large generation of cash flow and organic growth a priori with the effects of acquisitions. P / Fcf should be around 8. I don't know if I would keep it for long, I'm still studying it.
9- Kri Kri Milk . (Greece). What a lovely name.
Greek yahurts and ice cream. Small family business with strong export growth. Unlike a Danone, its production can be doubled quite easily. P / e 12/13.
I am optimistic about 2021 for the portfolio because I think I am well positioned, I do not risk a crash on the techno bubble. I rather risk a return on energy which would make the portfolio rise by at least 10%.
-I feel a bit offbeat when I see the positions of the people on the forums. We have pure bubble investments where we buy everything at pe of 30-40-50 or more, for fairly soft growth often (not always, some forumers find real growth), which seems to me an aberation, or well we have small cap value portfolios full of real estate developers, reits, or industrial equipment manufacturers. Difficult to predict domestic demand after the Covid crisis for these services. For my part, apart from a few old positions (old mistakes or companies that I have for a long time like Bank of Ireland and PayPal), I am more on "all terrain" companies, of basic consumption, logistics, telco, health. . I am more at ease with this to pass any post-covid monetary or economic shock.
- I recently opened a lot of small lines, it is my aversion to risk maybe, They should be reinforced as a priority.
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